Learning Resources

Abstract: Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The four scenarios described in this article are written by combining two assumed “external” sets of future trends and conditions with two “internal” sets of institutional policies. Simulation of future college enrollment under each scenario enables planners not only to mitigate uncertainty and explore implications of different numbers of students but also to analyze the characteristics of these students to design educational content and delivery that is learning centered and, therefore, likely to be effective. The simulations also frame fiscal issues for a broad range of future conditions, thereby alerting planners to long-range strategies and options such as distance learning, partnering, and differential pricing, among others, that might not otherwise have been pursued.

Abstract: In this article, we discuss a method for developing and writing scenarios for a college or university. We begin by reviewing the general literature on scenarios; we then detail a scenario development project at Arizona State University. This project, conducted in 1988–89, was Arizona State University's first institution-wide, futures-based planning and scenario development effort. The focus of the project for Arizona State University was planning and programming for affirmative action. An outside consultant facilitated the group-process portion of the project and instructed university staff in scenario development. Staff in the university's Office of Institutional Analysis then developed and wrote a set of three scenarios to guide the university's affirmative action programming and planning during the decade of the nineties.

Abstract: Drawing on his experiece as Provost for Planning at West Virginia University, Raymond M. Haas deals in the following article with the importance of a proper charge to the Planning Office as a means of achieving integrated planning. He further proposes that the role of the Planning Office should be clearly coordinative in the nature--to the point where its only responsibility for actual planning should be in planning the planning process. Finally, he argues that "... integrated planning can be achieved only when planning is a regularly scheduled activity which occurs frequently, and which produces results that manifest themselves in the allocation, reallocation, and effective use of resources within the institution." The author's remarks have been adapted from his presentation at the Society's 11th Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.