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Blog Post

Published
March 17, 2023

Cultivating 55+ Communities on Campus

Higher Education and Senior Living

By: Apryl Motley, CAE, SASM

To gain insight into the potential opportunities and obstacles university-based retirement communities (UBRCs) present for higher education, we turned to Andrew Carle, adjunct faculty member, senior living administration for Georgetown University’s Master of Science Program in Aging & Health.

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Planning for Higher Education Journal

Published
February 14, 2023

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Book Review: The Agile College

How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes

By: Bryan C. Harvey, EdD

From Volume 51 Number 2 | January–March 2023

Abstract: The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Changes
by Nathan D. Grawe
Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore: 2021
298 pages
ISBN: 978-1421440231

Does hope motivate action or complacency? Does crisis induce change or despair? Nathan D. Grawe readily acknowledges this tension in The Agile College, his follow-up book to his 2018 Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education. The latter propelled the inescapable discussion throughout higher education of the looming “demographic cliff.” The Agile College suggests how agile institutions might prevent demography from becoming destiny.

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Planning for Higher Education Journal

Published
April 6, 2022

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Teetering on the Demographic Cliff, Part 3

Different Conditions Require a Different Kind of Planning

By: Bryan C. Harvey, EdD

Higher education has faced major changes for some time—COVID-19 accelerated that volatility—and now we’re anticipating the demographic downslope in student enrollment. How and when should institutions mobilize for the difficult work of planning in the face of wrenching change?

From Volume 50 Number 2 | January–March 2022

Abstract: Part 1 of this series described a major contraction in the pool of college-going 18-year-olds that will reverse decades of growth and stability for higher education. Part 2 explored how we can shape a planning context that supports success in the coming 10 or 20 years. Part 3 suggests how our approach to planning must shift to prepare for abrupt change.

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Planning for Higher Education Journal

Published
December 15, 2021

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Teetering on the Demographic Cliff, Part 2

Turning Away from the Challenge Is the Riskiest Strategy of All

By: Bryan C. Harvey, EdD

Higher education has faced major changes for some time—COVID-19 accelerated that volatility—and now we’re anticipating the demographic downslope in student enrollment. How and when should institutions mobilize for the difficult work of planning in the face of wrenching change?

From Volume 50 Number 1 | October–December 2021

Abstract: Part 1 of this series described a major contraction in the pool of college-going 18-year-olds that will reverse decades of growth and stability for higher education. Drawing on the path-breaking analysis of Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe, it outlined how widespread but variable the change will be, and discussed some of the effects—on enrollment, revenue, facilities, staffing, and more—for which colleges and universities should be preparing. This Part 2 explores these implications: How can we shape a planning context that supports success in the coming 10 or 20 years? What attitudes and skillsets will remain useful, and what may need to change?

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Planning for Higher Education Journal

Published
September 17, 2021

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Teetering on the Demographic Cliff, Part 1

Prepare Now for the Challenging Times Ahead

By: Bryan C. Harvey, EdD

A long-term decline in birth rates raises fundamental planning questions for higher education as the pool of 18-year-olds contracts after 2025. How can planners and leaders use the time we have to prepare for some of the most wrenching changes in a generation?

From Volume 49 Number 4 | July–September 2021

Abstract: A long-term decline in birth rates raises fundamental planning questions for higher education as the pool of 18-year-olds contracts after 2025. This Planning for Higher Education series explores how planners and leaders can use the time we have to prepare for some of the most wrenching changes in a generation. This article, Part 1, surveys the planning horizon as we emerge from COVID-19 and describes the challenges ahead. Part 2 considers specific planning strategies institutions can adopt to meet the challenge. Part 3 tackles perhaps the most daunting challenge: how to mobilize institutions to actually do what needs to be done, however inconvenient (or worse) that may be.

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Conference Recordings

Published
July 12, 2021

2021 Annual Conference | July 2021

The Role of Community Colleges in Future-proofing Education

By: Richard Fort, Johnson County Community College | Anastasia Huggins, BNIM Architects | James Pfeiffer, BNIM Architects

In this session, we’ll share how community colleges can use metrics to understand long-term projections around regional enrollment needs and use human purpose integrated design to build for the future.
Abstract: With the cost of education skyrocketing, institutions must address the demographic cliff for future generations of learners. Community colleges offer important lessons regarding educational offerings across a diverse background and recognize how workforce development can inform campus planning and design. In this session, we'll share how community colleges can use metrics to understand long-term projections around regional enrollment needs and use human purpose integrated design to build for the future.

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Conference Presentations

Published
March 8, 2020

2020 North Atlantic Regional Conference | March 2020

Canaries in the Demographic Coal Mine

The Impending Enrollment Crash

By: Persis Rickes, President and Principal, Rickes Associates, Inc

We'll discuss the demographic decline, institutions already affected, and proactive strategies for addressing it (already undertaken by some).
Abstract: Higher education enrollments have trended downwards for each of the last eight years and are poised to enter a decade-long freefall. This demographic decline will force institutions to confront a new structural reality, including an unprecedented wave of downsizing, mergers, and even closures, but only a handful of institutions have begun to respond proactively. A deeper understanding of the enrollment crash is essential. We'll discuss the demographic decline, institutions already affected, and proactive strategies for addressing it (already undertaken by some).

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Conference Presentations

Published
October 6, 2019

2019 Southern Regional Conference | October 2019

Inform Planning Through Regional Demographics and Labor Markets

By: Russ Deaton, Woody Giles

In this session, we will share the Tennessee Board of Regents’ statewide demographic and labor market analysis, which examines demographic, enrollment, and job data to inform coordinated, statewide decision making for academic planning and facility expansions.
Abstract: Institutions can inform their academic and facilities planning by studying labor markets as well as demographic and enrollment trends. In this session, we will share the Tennessee Board of Regents’ statewide demographic and labor market analysis, which examines demographic, enrollment, and job data to inform coordinated, statewide decision making for academic planning and facility expansions. Come learn how Tennessee's methodology can aid your institution in coordinating academic offerings and facilities investments among campuses.

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Conference Presentations

Published
July 14, 2019

2019 Annual Conference | July 2019

How Is My Institution Going to Survive the Coming Demographic Cliff?

By: Bryan C. Harvey

Abstract: A sharp, perhaps permanent contraction in the pool of college-aged students has become inescapable. Nearly all institutions could confront wrenching losses in competitiveness, revenue, or both. Yet despite advance warning, few institutions understand what they must do now to remain viable. We will go over two sets of tools that are critical for preparing for the upcoming demographic changes: 1) conducting analyses of institutional vulnerability; and 2) modeling what-if scenarios to shape strategy.

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