Daniel F. Sullivan, president of St. Lawrence University, looks for the hidden costs of low retention rates, from the student perspective. He notes that four years of attendance at a public institution costs less than at a private institution -... however, given the higher risks of not graduating in 4 years at the public institution, the eventual overall costs might really be closer or even favor private colleges.

In this time of special financial stress for so many American families, the cost of college attendance may seem especially daunting. Prospective students and their families should, therefore, consider the implications of this analysis as they weigh the differences between public and private higher education options—and between high-four-year-graduation-rate and low-four-year-graduation-rate options, whether public or private. It is clear from all the scenarios presented in figure 1 that if a student manages to graduate in four years from a public institution, the total cost of attendance will be lower than at a private institution. On the other hand, the risk of not graduating in four years is much higher at a public institution. In the event that a student attending a public institution does not graduate in four years, but could have done so by attending a private institution, the cost savings of the public choice remain only if the student is non-aided and attending an in-state public institution.

To return to where I began, the single most important step colleges and universities—especially public colleges and universities—can take to lower the student and family cost of college attendance is to improve retention, thereby increasing the four-year graduation rate. With the exception of the rates for highly selective institutions (and these can be higher, with work, as well), the four-year graduation rates of both public and private colleges and universities in America are embarrassingly low.

If community colleges were to find all the formerly enrolled students whose academic records qualify them for an associate degree and retroactively award them the credential, then the number of associate degrees awarded in the United States would increase by at least 12 percent.

That's what David Molz writes in Inside Higher Ed, reporting on the Lumina-funded Project Win-Win. Project Win-Win is seeking out the low-hanging fruit which can boost states' goals of increasing the graduation rates. The project is supporting 35 institutions in sorting out awarded credits, complicated student records, and identifying students who actually do have enough credits to graduate, but who for some reason have not been awarded a degree. They're also identifying students ho are very close to a degree, and contacting them about opportunities to finish it.

Note that Predictive Analytics: Building a Crystal Ball for Student Success is a SCUP September 29 webcast which will focus on many ways that better, real-time data analytics will play a role in the country's completion agenda. More details about that will be available on SCUP's website soon.

In Florida, they definitely seem to be mostly going for that mile. And it's not primarily competition with 4-year colleges that worry many, it's a concern that community college 4-year programs might dilute the original community college mission. 

“There are a lot of different types of students who knock at the door of community colleges,” said Hagedorn, who before moving to Iowa State was a longtime educational policy researcher at the University of Florida. “I just worry that they’re not going to be able to serve all those different types if they’re bringing in more four-year program students. There will be less room for remediation and truly vocational programs. Some are not going to be as well-served as others. We have to remember the reason community colleges were established in the first place.”

Still, Hagedorn conceded that scholars do not know enough about these community college baccalaureate programs to say whether they have adversely affected existing two-year programs. As to why the furor in Florida over these degrees had died down, she said the answer was simple.

"The cry that ‘oh my god, the community colleges are going to be taking away our students’ didn’t happen,” Hagedorn said. “There’s no shortage of students going to the University of Florida or the University of Central Florida or to any of Florida’s other universities right now.”

Like the foundations, most states are also responding to the call, with many planning or already carrying out the completion agenda. So are many individual colleges. It is unlikely than any community college, or any educational institution, will be untouched by the completion agenda. There has never been a “movement” in the community college world so widely joined and supported by such deep pockets. The completion agenda is, indeed, a tectonic shift.

Mark Milliron, now with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, once again wowed a SCUP plenary audience on Monday morning. We are grateful that he is sharing his slide show (available only temporarily without password protection). And we have a brief YouTube video of part of his presentation (below). Enjoy! We did.